نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه گیلان(نویسنده مسئول)
3 استاد گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه گیلان
چکیده
بحرانهای امنیتی در افغانستان با سقوط رژیم طالبان و نقش آفرینی ایالات متحده و ناتو در این کشور بین سالهای 2008-2001 فروکش نمود. با این حال، میزان خشونت ها، تلفات انسانی، حملات هراس افکنانه، فعالیت گروههای هراس افکن و جنگ سالاران، احساس ناامنی در میان شهروندان عادی و نخبگان سیاسی، و همچنین تزلزل نهادها و نظام سیاسی افغانستان از سال 2008 به بعد افزایش یافت و حمایت بازیگران منطقه‌ای از گروههای غیردولتی و محلی، به مرور زمان علنی تر شد. این مقاله به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که چه عواملی زمینه ساز گسترش ناامنی و بحرانهای امنیتی در افغانستان از سال 2008 تا 2021 میلادی بوده است؟ برای پاسخ به این پرسش از نظریه‌های امنیتی و به طور خاص رویکردهای باری بوزان، محمد ایوب و ریچارد لیتل استفاده شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که افتراق در باب ایده دولت متاثر از قومیت و مذهب، جامعه چند پاره، کاهش مشروعیت حکومت، گروههای هراس افکن و جنگ سالاران و ارتباط این عوامل با محیط امنیتی قوای نامتقارن (محیط امنیتی افغانستان و پاکستان و افغانستان و ایران) موجب شکل‌گیری و گسترش چالش های امنیتی افغانستان بعد از 2008 میلادی شده است.
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Jadoon A. (2018). Allied & Lethal: Islamic State Khorasan’s Network and
Organizational Capacity in Afghanistan and Pakistan. US Military Academy,
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
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Krause K. (1998). "Theorizing Security, State Formation and the 'Third World' in
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Future. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA).
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Insurgencies, 22:4, 603-618, DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2011.599166.
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Institute for International Studies.
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Europe. Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/1075333.html.
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Afghanistan: U.S. Air Force Roles. Rand Corporation.
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Secretary-General.
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Security, A/66/369–S/2011/590, General Assembly & UNSC, Report of
secretary-General.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implication for International Peace and
Security, A/73/374–S/2018/824, General Assembly & UNSC, 2018, Report of
the Secretary-General.
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Security, A/68/910–S/2014/420, General Assembly &UNSC, Agenda item 37.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implication for International Peace and
Security, A/74/582–S/2019/935, General Assembly & UNSC, 2019, Report of
the Secretary –General.
and Pakistan, Danish Institute for International Studies.
Behuria, A (2019). US-Taliban Talks for Afghan Peace: Complexities. Strategic
Analysis.
Buzan, B. (1983). People, States and Fear: National Security Problem in
International Relations. Wheatsheaf Books
Bhatia, M & Sedra, M (2008). Afghanistan, Arm and Conflict. Routledge.
Buzan B & Richard, L. (2000). International Systems in World History: Remaking
the Study of International Relations. Oxford university press.
Fair, C, Crane, K, Chivvis, C.S, Puri, S & Spirtas, M (2010). Pakistan Can the
United States Secure an Insecure State?, RAND Corporation.
Clark K & Bijlert, M.V (2019). "Afghanistan’s 2019 Election (13): Observations
from Kandahar, Takhar, Wardak and Balkh (2019). Afghanistan Analysis
Network. Report
Cordesman A. H. (2016). "Afghanistan: The Uncertain Impact of a Year of
Transition", CSIS. Available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/afghanistan-
uncertain-impact-year-transition-0.
Dai, H. (2017). "Analysis: Iran’s Game Plan in Afghanistan".
https://english.alarabiya.net/features/2017/01/17/Analysis-Iran-s-game-plan-
in-Afghanistan.
Dorsey J M. (2017). "In Shadowy Covert Wars, Iran Takes Center Stage, Begin-
Sadat Center for Strategic Studies", BESA Center Perspectives Paper, No.
641.
European Asylum Office (2016). Afghanistan Security Situation Update. Country
of Origin Information Report.
Gall, C. (2014). The Wrong enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001-2014. Houghton
Mifflin Harcourt.
Gall, C. (2017). "Tehran’s Turn: In Afghanistan, US Exits, and Iran Comes". New
York Times, August 5, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/
world/asia/iran-afghanistan- taliban.html.
Gampert, D & Gordon, J. (2008). War by other Means: Building Complete and
Balanced Capabilities for Counterinsurgency, National Deffnse Research
Institute, RAND.
Giustozzi, A. (2018). IS-Khorasan Towards Financial Autonomy. Centre for
Research and Policy Analysis.
Hamshahri Online (2011). "Iran Opposes U.S Afghanistan Strategic Pact".
https://www.hamshahrionline.ir/news/150185/.
Hodes C. & Sedra M. (2007). Chapter Two: Spoiler Groups and the antigovernment Insurgency. The Adelphi Papers.
Irwin L G. (2012). Disjointed Ways, Disunified Means: Learning from America’s
Struggle to Build an Afghan Nation. Strategic Studies Institute, Report, US
Army War College
Jadoon A. (2018). Allied & Lethal: Islamic State Khorasan’s Network and
Organizational Capacity in Afghanistan and Pakistan. US Military Academy,
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
Jone S. G. (2008). "Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: RAND Counterinsurgency
Study". RAND Corporation. Vol. 4.
Kagan F. W. et al (2012). Iranian Influence in the Levant, Egypt, Iraq and
Afghanistan. Institute for the Study of War.
Koehler J ; Gosztonyi, K & Bohnke, J R. (2011). Conflict and Stability in
Afghanistan: Mythological Approaches. ResearchGate
Koepke B. (2013). Iran’s Policy on Afghanistan: The Evolution of Strategic
Pragmatism. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Solna.
Kolenda, C. D. (2019). "Slow Failure: Understanding America's Auagmire in
Afghanistan". Journal of Strategic Studies.
Krause K. (1998). "Theorizing Security, State Formation and the 'Third World' in
the Post-Cold War World The Third World Security Predicament: State
Making, Regional Conflict and the International System by Mohammed
Ayoob". Review of International Studies, Vol. 24, No. 1.
Kuhn F. P. (2011). "Less is More: International Intervention and the Limits of
External Stabilization". Canadian Foreign Policy Journal.
Kutty S. N. (2014). "Iran’s Continuing Interests in Afghanistan". The Washington
Quarterly. 37:2, 139-156, DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2014.926214.
Malaiz, D (2015). "Afghanistan: Overview of Sources of Tension with Regional
Implication 2015", CIDOB Policy Research Project. Available at:
https://www.cidob.org/en/
publications/publication_series/project_papers/stap_rp/policy_research_papers
/afghanistan_overview_of_sources_of_tension_with_regional_implications_20
15.
Molazehi, A. (2015) "The Differences Between Taliban and Islamic State form the
Perspective of an Afghanistan Expert". IRNA. Available: https://www.irna.ir/
news/81630410. (In persian)
Nader A. et al (2014). "Iran’s Influence in Afghanistan: Implications for the U.S.
Drawdown". RAND Corporation.
Niakooee, S. A (2013). "Contemporary Arab Uprisings: Different Processes and
Outcomes". Japanese Journal of Political Science. Vol 14. Issues3. 421-445. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109913000170.
Olivier, O (2003). "Afghanistan: Internal Politics and Socio-Economic Dynamics
and Grouping", UNHCR Emergency & Security Service. CNRS, Paris.
Oztig, L. I. (2018). "Pakistan's Border Policies and Security Dynamics along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan Border". Journal of Borderlands Studies, 35:2, 211-226,
DOI: 10.1080/08865655.2018.1545598.
Pattanaik S.S. (2013). Afghanistan and Its Neighborhood in Search of a Stable
Future. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA).
Peceny M & Bosin Y. (2011). Winning with warlords in Afghanistan, Small War &
Insurgencies, 22:4, 603-618, DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2011.599166.
Rama, L (2011). "India and Afghanistan Sing Security and Trade Pact".
washengtonpost. Available at: www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-
pacific/india-and-afghanistan-sign-security-and-trad-
pact/2011/10/04/qlQAHLOOLL_story.html.
Saikhal A. (2013). Afghanistan Attitude toward the region. Palgrave Macmillan.
Security Council, S/2011/55, Report of the Secretary-General on Children and
Armed Conflict in Afghanistan, UN.
Seddique Q. (2011). Pakistan’s Future Policy Towards Afghanistan: A Look at
Strategic Depth, Militant Movements and the role of India the US. Danish
Institute for International Studies.
Tarzi A. (2007). "Afghanistan: Kabul Mulls Relations with Iran". Radio Free
Europe. Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/1075333.html.
Thaler D. E, et al (2008). Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and
Afghanistan: U.S. Air Force Roles. Rand Corporation.
The Situation in Afghanistan and Its Implications for International Peace and
Security, A/65/783–S/2011/120*, General Assembly & UNSC, report of
Secretary-General.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implication for International Peace and
Security, A/66/369–S/2011/590, General Assembly & UNSC, Report of
secretary-General.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implication for International Peace and
Security, A/73/374–S/2018/824, General Assembly & UNSC, 2018, Report of
the Secretary-General.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implication for International Peace and
Security, A/68/910–S/2014/420, General Assembly &UNSC, Agenda item 37.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implication for International Peace and
Security, A/74/582–S/2019/935, General Assembly & UNSC, 2019, Report of
the Secretary –General.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implications for International Peace and
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the Secretary-General.
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implications for International Peace and
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Secretary-General.
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)
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