نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه اصفهان
2 دانش آموخته دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه گیلان و پژوهشگر مهمان مرکز مطالعات استراتژیک خاورمیانه
10.22067/irlip.2024.83741.1422
چکیده
روابط جمهوری اسلامی ایران و پادشاهی عربستان سعودی در طول چند دهه گذشته تا به امروز بین منازعه، رقابت و همکاری محدود در نوسان بوده است. اغلب، رقابت و منازعه این دو بازیگر براساس رویکردهای ایدئولوژیکی و یا ژئوپلیتیکی و همکاری آنها براساس نظریات منطقهگرایی و مبتنی بر ساختار نظام بینالملل تحلیل میشود اما بررسی فهم و ادراک نخبگان سیاسی و نظامی آنان عمدتاً موردتوجه قرار نمیگیرد. این پژوهش به دنبال آن است با بررسی اظهارات و رفتار نخبگان سیاسی- نظامی دو کشور، تأثیر این سیگنالها را بر منازعه، تطویل مذاکرات، سرعت توافقات اخیر و آینده روابط دو بازیگر مورد بررسی قرار دهد. سؤال اصلی که مطرح میشود این است که: سیگنالهای ارسالی نخبگان سیاسی-نظامی ایران و عربستان چه تأثیری بر روابط آنها داشته است؟ در پاسخ به سؤال فوق در چارچوب تئوری سیگنالینگ و با روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی این فرضیه مطرح میشود که: سیگنالهای ارسالی نخبگان سیاسی- نظامی و رفتار ایران و عربستان نسبت به یکدیگر باعث شده است نخبگان دو کشور در مقاطعی ادراک مبتنی بر تهدید از یکدیگر داشته باشند و این امر به طولانی شدن مذاکرات و درنتیجه تشدید رقابت و منازعه میان آنها منجر شده است و در مقاطع دیگر این سیگنا-لها مبتنی بر همکاری و بازی با حاصل جمع غیرصفر بوده که دو بازیگر را به یکدیگر نزدیک کرده و توافقاتی میان آنها شکل گرفته است. با توجه به تجربه چنین فرازوفرودهایی در ارسال سیگنالها پیشبینی میشود روابط ایران و عربستان در یک دوره میان مدت با گذار از منازعه بین رقابت و همکاری محدود در نوسان باشد.
کلیدواژهها
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