نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران(نویسنده مسئول)
2 دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی دانشکد حقوق و علوم سیاسی،دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران
چکیده
بروز تحولات بنیادین در ژئوپلیتیک شرق آسیا به‌همراه تغییر در معادلات قدرت منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی، ژاپن را وادار به بازنگری در تعهد خود به صلح‌طلبی مدون در قانون اساسی کرده است. در این چارچوب، تحول در راهبرد امنیتی و دفاعی این کشور در دورۀ فومیو کیشیدا (معروف به دکترین کیشیدا) نسبت به دورۀ شینزو آبه، محسوس‌تر شده است. پژوهش حاضر درصدد پاسخ‌گویی به این پرسش است که «چه مؤلفه‌هایی بر تحول راهبرد امنیتی و دفاعی ژاپن در دوران کیشیدا و ارائۀ دکترین وی تأثیرگذار بوده است؟» استدلال اصلی مقاله این است که «تحول در راهبرد دفاعی‌ـ‌امنیتی ژاپن، پاسخی به تغییرات ساختاری بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای ناشی از ظهور چین به‌عنوان بازیگر چالشگر نظام و نااطمینانی از تعهدات ایالات‌متحده در حمایت همه‌جانبه از آن درصورت بروز جنگ و تنش‌های حاد ژئوپلیتیکی است». یافته‌های پژوهش با تکیه بر نظریۀ نوواقع‌گرایی نشان می‌دهد که پویایی‌های ساختاری بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای برآمده از تلاقی گذار جهانی و منطقه‌ای میان چین و امریکا، افزایش فشار آمریکا بر ژاپن به‌منظور افزایش نقش امنیتی و دفاعی گسترده‌تر، افزایش رقابت تسلیحاتی در شرق آسیا، دلالت‌های بین‌المللی ناشی از حملۀ روسیه به اوکراین و افزایش تحرکات نظامی روسیه در شمال ژاپن در کنار عوامل پایدار افزایش تهدیدهای هسته‌ای و موشکی کره شمالی بر تحول راهبرد دفاعی و امنیتی ژاپن تأثیرگذار بوده‌اند. براین‌اساس، دکترین کیشیدا با تأکید بر ضرورت ایفای نقش پویاتر در سیاست جهانی و منطقه‌ای و افزایش توانمندی‌های دفاعی‌ـ‌نظامی، حاکی از چرخش ژاپن از راهبرد پیشین مصون‌سازی به‌سوی رفتار توازن قوای فعال است.
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