نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار و عضو هیأت علمی وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری
چکیده
بی‌تردید امروزه تروریسم بازیگری مهم در عرصه بین الملل است. نگاهی راهبردی به امواج تروریسم در جهان نمایانگر بروز شواهد قوی برای ظهور موج جدید تروریستی در جهان است. مقاله حاضر، به دنبال پاسخ به این سوال اصلی است که موج پنجم تروریسم در منطقه غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا چگونه خواهد بود؟ مبتنی بر آنچه به عنوان تروریسم در منطقه غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا در قرن 21 فعالیت داشته، به نظر می‌رسد «تروریسم نیمه دولتی» موج جدید تروریسم است. موجی که کنترل بخش هایی از قلمرو یک دولت ضعیف را بر عهده دارد و حکومت خود را در آنجا حفظ می کند و نیز حملات تروریستی علیه کشورهای دیگر انجام می دهد. بر اساس شاخص‌های امواج تروریسم جهانی، برای در نظر گرفتن موج پنجم، پدیده تروریسم جدید باید جهانی باشد، نیروی محرک یکسانی داشته باشد و همچنین با موج قبلی تفاوت چشمگیری داشته باشد. بدیهی است که تروریسم نیمه دولتی به مثابه موج جدید تروریسم، با گروه های تروریستی مذهبی موج چهارم متفاوت است. این وجه از تروریسم، کنترل سرزمین را در اولویت قرار می دهند، در طیف وسیع تری از فعالیت های دولتی و حاکمیتی (نه فقط خدمات اجتماعی) مشارکت دارند، بیشتر به دنبال کسب قدرت هستند و دارای عقاید تکفیری اند. در نهایت مقاله به این نتیجه می رسد که پدیده تروریسم نیمه دولتی در صورت امتداد و گسترش، قابلیت تبدیل شدن به یک موج جهانی را دارد.
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