تغییر راهبردهای روسیه در خاورمیانۀ پساداعش

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مهرداد رضاپور ¹
• احمد شوهانی ²

¹ کارشناسی ارشد علوم سیاسی- دانشگاه پیام نور(نویسنده مسئول)

² استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه پیام نور.تهران. ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22067/irlip.2021.21466.0

چکیده

استراتژی‌های روسیه‌ی پس از شوروی به علت چالشهای داخلی آن دچار افول شده بود و این حالت تا دهه اول قرن 21 ادامه داشت، اما با رویداد بهار عربی و ظهور داعشیسم در خاورمیانه، فرصتی دوباره برای نفوذ روسیه در منطقه و احیای جایگاه بین‌المللی آن فراهم آمد. در این مقاله که با رهیافت واقع‌گرایی نئوکلاسیک و با روش تبیینی-تحلیلی انجام شد، هدف بررسی تغییرات استراتژیک پارادایم سیاسی-امنیتی و اقتصادی روسیه در خاورمیانه پساداعش بود. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان داد که روسیه پس از یک دوره بازیابی توان داخلی و حل مسائل درون‌دولتی، به تدریج مناسبات خود را با منطقه خاورمیانه گسترش داد. بحران سوریه و عراق در دهه دوم قرن 21 راه نفوذ بیشتر نظامی-امنیتی، سیاسی و اقتصادی را برای روسها باز نمود و در رقابت با غربی‌ها، آنها پایگاه و جایگاه خود را در خاورمیانه گسترش دادند، بطوریکه دوباره خود را به عنوان قدرت بزرگ در عرصه بین‌الملل مطرح ساختند. پس از داعش، روسیه با گسترش روابط سیاسی-اقتصادی با کشورهای عربی و غیرعربی خاورمیانه، ائتلافهای مختلف و پیمانهای امنیتی-مستشاری-نظامی و توافقات سیاسی و تجاری نفوذ خود را گسترده‌تر ساخت. نتایج نشان داد که روسیه‌ی پساداعش درصدد ابقاء نیروها و تسلیحات و ایجاد پایگاه‌های نظامی بوده و قصد نفوذ پایدارتر و دائمی‌تر در رقابت با غربی‌ها و هژمونی آمریکا برای کسب منافع سیاسی-امنیتی و اقتصادی بیشتر در خاورمیانه را دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• پارادایم سیاسی-امنیتی
• اقتصاد
• روسیه
• داعشیسم
• خاورمیانه

مراجع

Agata, W. B. (2017). Syria in Russia’s Foreign Policy in the 21st Century, Teka Kom. Politol.
Stos. Międzynar. – OL PAN, 12/1, 27–40.
Al-Ibrahim, F. (22 August 2014). "Why ISIS is a threat to Saudi Arabia: Wahhabism's
deferred promise". Al Akhbar English.
Asgarian, H.; (2019). Russian Middle East Policy, Abrar Institute For Contemporary
International Studies And Research. (in Persian).
Babazadeh Joudi, A., & Eslami, S. (2015), Russia and the United States' approach to ISIS,
International Conference On New Approaches In The Humanities. (in Persian).
Bratersky, A., (2019). Russia's Victory Without War in the Middle East. Source: Gaztaro.
(in Persian).
Bradley, M., (1 February 2015). "Islamic State Affiliate Takes Root Amid Libya's Chaos".
The Wall Street Journal.
Brockwehl, A. (2018). Syria and beyond: managing russian ambitions in the middle east.
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. p. 10
Connable, B., Natasha L., & Kimberly J. (2017). Beating the islamic state: selecting a new
strategy for iraq and syria. Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. p. 12
Claire, M. (2018). ISIS/Daesh: what now for the military campaign in Iraq and Syria?. House
Of Commons Library, Commons Library Briefing. 10 July
Carla E. H., & Mary Beth D. N. (2019). Armed conflict in syria: overview and U.S. response.
USA- Congressional Research Service. p. 15.
Coffey, L. (2018). The Caspian Sea agreement serves as an important regional agreement
and a pillar of security, why are some Iranians unhappy?. Retrived from:
https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/some-iranians-are-not-happy-with-the-caspian-
agreement-why--19773. Director of the Foreign Policy Center at The Heritage
Foundation.
Carroll, O. (2017). Russia and Saudi Arabia 'sign $3bn arms deal' as King Salman visit shows
how much relations have changed. Retrived from:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-king-salman-visit-saudi-
arabia-moscow-vladimir-putin-a7985161.html, independent agency. 5 October.
Covington, S.R. (2015). "The Meaning of Russia’s Campaign in Syria", Belfer Center for
Science and International Affairs. Harvard Kennedy School, Accessed on: 28 March/
2016.
Dannreuther, R. (2004). “Russia and the Middle East,” in the Middle East’s Relations with
Asia and Russia. Edited by Hannah Carter and Anoshirvan Ehteshami. Routledge Curzon,
London.

FPCRF (The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation). (12 July 2008). President
of Russia. www.kremlin.ru.
Ghavam, A. A. (2005). International relations: theories and approaches. Tehran: Samt
Publisher. (in Persian)
Giles, K. (2016). "Russia’s ‘New’ Tools for Confronting the West Continuity and Innovation
in Moscow’s Exercise of Power". The Royal Institute Of International Affairs, Chatham
House, London. Retrived from: www.chathamhouse.org. Accessed on: 18 Jun.
Götz, E. (2021). Neoclassical Realist Theories, Intervening Variables, and Paradigmatic
Boundaries. Foreign Policy Analysis. 17(2).
Gutterman, S. (2012). Russia won't back U.N. call for Syria's Assad to go. Retrived from:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-russia/russia-wont-back-u-n-call-for-syrias-
assad-to-go-idUSTRE80Q0I620120127.
Haaretz News. (2018). NATO Confirms Russian Naval Buildup Off Syria, Calls for
Restraint. Retrived from: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/nato-confirms-
russian-naval-build-up-off-syria-as-tensions-rise-1.6429071. Aug 29.
Hincks, J. (2019). Israel and Iran Are Waging a Secret War in Syria. Here’s How It Finally
Went Public. Retrived from: http://time.com/5513411/israel-iran-secret-war-syria.
January 25.
Itani, F., & Rosenblatt, N. (2018). US Policy in Syria: A Seven-Year Reckoning. Rafik Hariri
Center For The Middle East. P. 4
Jawhar, J. (2016). Terrorists’ Use of the Internet: The Case of Daesh. The Southeast Asia
Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism (SEARCCT). Ministry Of Foreign Affairs. No
516. Persiaran Tuanku Ja’afar, Bukit Persekutuan, 50480. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Katz. M. N., (2010). Russia's Greater Middle East Policy: Securing Economic Interests,
Courting Islam. NIS Center, Vision. n.49
Kolobov. O., & Kornilov. A. (2011). Middle East Policy of Russia Under President
Medvedev: Strategies, Institutes, Faces. Bilge Strateji.
Kuchins. A. C., & Mammadov. F. (2013), Iran-Azerbaijan Relations and Strategic
Competition in the Caucasus, Center For Strategic And International Studies Russia And
Eurasia Program.
Marcus J. (2015). “Russia S-400 Syria Missile Deployment Sends Robust Signal,”. BBC.
Retrived from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34976537, December 1.
Macias A. (2018). At least 13 countries are interested in buying a Russian missile system
instead of platforms made by US companies. Despite The Threat Of Sanctions. 14 Nov.
Mansoori, H., & Javdani Moghaddam, M. (2018). Assessment of Russia's foreign policy
towards takfiri movements in the Middle East (A case study of ISIL). Journal Of History,
Politics And Media. First Year. No 3. Fall. 385-410. (in Persian)

McCowan. J. H. (2017). War of Shadows: How Turkey’s Conflict with the PKK Shapes the
Syrian Civil War and Iraqi Kurdistan. King’s College London Strand London WC2R 2LS.
United Kingdom. 4-24.
McDonnell, P. J.; Hennigan, W.J.; & Bulos, N. (30 September 2015). "Russia launches
airstrikes in Syria amid U.S. concern about targets". Los Angeles Times.
Moscow Time. (2010). Russia, israel agree to boost economic ties. Moscow Time News,
16/02/2010.
Moshirzadeh, H. (2005). Evolution in theories of international relations. Tehran: Samt
Publisher. (in Persian)
Popescu, N., & Secrieru, S. (2018). RUSSIA’S RETURN TO THE MIDDLE EAST
BUILDING SANDCASTLES?. European Union Institute For Security Studies, Chaillot
Papers. Nº 146. July. p. 47
Rashidvash, V. (2012). History of Iran: The Circumstances of Signing Golestan and
Turkmanchy Treaties and its Contents. International Review of Social Sciences and
Humanities. 3(1). 246-261.
Rosa, P., Benati, S., Foradori, P., & Longoni, G. M. (2020). Neoclassical realism and Italy’s
military behaviour, 1946–2010: a combined dyad/nation analysis. Political Research
Exchange Journal. 2(1).
Ripsman, N. M., Taliaferro, J. W., & Lobell, S. E. (2016). Neoclassical realist theory of
international politics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Roberts, J. (2018). What Russia Wins From the Caspian Sea Deal (Op-ed), Retrived from:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/08/17/what-russia-wins-from-the-caspian-sea-
deal-opinion-a62526. The Moscow Times. Aug 17.
Starr, B. (2016). "Estimate: More than 26,000 ISIS fighters killed by Coalition". CNN. 17
February.
Sharafedin, B. (2015). Iranian commander Soleimani meets Putin in Moscow. Retrived from:
https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0TZ1NY20151216. December 16.
Semenov, K. (2017). Russia seeks closer military-technical cooperation with UAE. Retrived
from: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/11/russia-eyes-closer-military-
cooperation-uae.html. Almonitor. November 28.
Şafak. Y. (2018). Russia's Putin says Daesh is defeated in Syria. Reuters Agency. April 04.
Slackman, M. (2011). Syrian Troops Open Fire on Protesters in Several Cities.
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/world/middleeast/26syria.html. MARCH 25.
The NATO StratCom COE. (2015). Daesh information campaign and its influence. ISBN
978-9934-8582-1-5
Trenin, D. (2005). Russia’s Policy in the Middle East: Prospects for Consensus and Conflict
with the United States. A Century Foundation Report, Washington, D.C. p.5

Titov, A. (2018). What’s behind Russia’s military build-up in Syria?.
http://theconversation.com/whats-behind-russias-military-build-up-in-syria-47787.
September 19
Zahrani, M., & Faraji Lohehsara, T. (2016). Geopolitics approach of Russia in syria Crisis.
Central Asia And Caucasus Quarterly. No. 94. Summer. 43-70. (in Persian).