نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

2 دکتری علوم ارتباطات دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

3 دانشیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه اصفهان

4 دانش‌آموخته روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

از سال ۱۹۹۱، مسئله استقلال اقلیم کردستان عراق یکی از اهداف مهم این اقلیم به شمار می‌رود. مسعود بارزانی، رئیس اقلیم کردستان عراق برای رسیدن به این هدف در ۲۵ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۷ میلادی همه‌پرسی تعیین استقلال این اقلیم را از حکومت مرکزی برگزار نمود و عراق را تا آستانه خطر تجزیه‌طلبی و جنگ داخلی پیش برد و کشورهای منطقه ازجمله جمهوری اسلامی ایران، ترکیه و سوریه که دارای اقلیتی از اکراد می‌باشند، این مسئله را تهدیدی بالقوه علیه امنیت ملی خود قلمداد کردند. مقاله حاضر به دنبال ارائه پاسخی متقن بدین سؤال است که به رغم برگزاری مسئله همه‌پرسی استقلال اقلیم کردستان، چه سناریوهای محتملی را می‌توان برای آینده این اقلیم متصور بود؟ و این مسئله چه تأثیراتی بر امنیت جمهوری اسلامی ایران خواهد گذارد؟ نویسندگان با بهره‌گیری از روش آینده‌پژوهشی و استفاده از منابع مکتوب و مجازی به ترسیم سه سناریو عمده در خصوص آینده اقلیم کردستان عراق مبادرت نمودند و یافته‌ها پژوهش حاکی از آن است که تحریم‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی کشورهای منطقه همچون ایران، ترکیه و عراق، مرگ جلال طالبانی، چالش‌های درونی اکراد در درون اقلیم کردستان باعث تعلیق همه‌پرسی شده و آینده اقلیم کردستان عراق، مطابق متغیرهای الگویی کانتوری و اشپیگل نه‌تنها سبب همگرایی منطقه‌ای نمی‌شود بلکه واگرایی وسیعی در منطقه رقم خواهد خورد و تهدیداتی ناشی از سطح ماهیت انسجام، ماهیت ارتباطات، ساختار روابط و سطح قدرت و بازیگر مداخله‌گر را برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران به همراه خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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