Desirable Requirements for Iran's Foreign Policy in the Era of Arab-Israeli Normalization: Post-Abraham Accords

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

seyed morteza hafezi ¹

seyed amir Niakoee ²

Abolghasem Shahriari ³

¹ Postdoctoral Researcher in Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran.

² Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran.

³ Ph.D. Graduate in Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

10.22067/irlip.2026.93927.1677

Abstract

This study aims to identify the necessary conditions for the optimal foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in response to the normalization process between Arab countries and the Zionist regime, focusing on the period following the Abraham Accords. The main research question is: What scenarios can the Islamic Republic of Iran consider in its foreign policy when confronted with emerging regional coalitions that construct Iran as a common threat? This question gains significance within the context of regional geopolitical changes and the formation of new alliances based on the construction of Iran as a shared threat. To investigate this issue, the Delphi method was initially used to identify key influencing variables through expert opinions, followed by exploratory factor analysis to extract potential scenarios. Accordingly, this study is exploratory rather than hypothesis-testing. The statistical population consists of 20 academic experts specialized in Middle Eastern studies and experienced managers from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, selected through purposive sampling. The analysis identified five scenarios for Iran’s foreign policy outlook under these conditions. The first, the "Strategic Deadlock" scenario, represents an undesirable outcome characterized by Iran’s passivity and increased regional isolation. Conversely, four scenarios—"Balanced Diplomacy," "Endogenous Power," "Soft Influence," and "Active Deterrence"—are proposed as favorable foreign policy options to improve Iran’s position in the face of normalization. These scenarios examine the conditions for realization, requirements, opportunities, and threats for each pathway, providing a basis for strategic decision-making grounded in futures studies within Iran’s foreign policy.

Keywords

Normalization of relations, Iran&‌‌rsquo

s foreign policy, Israel and Arab states, geopolitical threats, Delphi method

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