The model of measuring the state of international order and the hegemonic position of USA

Document Type : Original Article

Author

alireza KHosravi

Associate professor of International Relations, faculty of law & political science, University of Tehran,Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22067/irlip.2025.87056.1504

Abstract

Although the future of the international order and its coordinates can be analyzed from different angles and different levels of analysis, the complexity derived from rapid developments, network relationships, major events and frequent changes in the approaches and policies of major states during the transition period; prevails A situation of deep uncertainty over the future of the order, which makes it impossible to reliably estimate and predict how it will be. In this article, focusing on the war in Ukraine as a key event in the future state of the international order, the question is addressed, what are the future scenarios of the war in Ukraine and its implications for the international order? To answer this question, an attempt has been made to the foresight approach and the key uncertainty method, which are the approaches corresponding to the methodology of complexity in the philosophy of science. The findings confirm that out of the total of 5 main driving forces shaping the future of the war in Ukraine, two driving forces include: a) the level of NATO's risk tolerance for the continuation or extension of the war, and b) the level of cohesion, resilience and the possibility of Russian trade exchanges to continue the war; It has higher uncertainty and importance, and according to the different states of uncertainty, a total of four scenarios including: "nuclear war", "strategic stalemate", "restrained Russia ", and "victory Russia" as scenarios with The probability of occurrence is high in the next two years.

Highlights

1. Buchholz, K. ( 2020) “Continental Shift: The World’s Biggest Economies Over Time,”
(statista.com). Available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/22256/biggest-economies-
in-the-world-timeline/
2. Fragile States Index. ( 2020) “Measuring Fragility Risk and Vulnerability in 179 Countries,”
Powered by Fund for Peace. ( fragilestatesindex.org). Available at: https://fragilestatesindex.
org/excel/2020. (Accessed 2 November 2022).
3. Gilpin, R. ( 1987) The Political Economy of International Relation. Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press.
4. Global Firepower. ( 2022) World Military Strength Rankings. Available at: https://
www.globalfirepower.com (Accessed 18 November 2022).
5. Haass, Richard N. ( 2013) Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America’s
House in Order. New York: Basic Books.
6. Huygens, A. D. ( 2017) American Decline and Changing Global Hegemony, MA Theses,
Department of Political Science, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa. <DOI:10.31274/
etd-180810-5777>. Available at: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/entities/publication/
2ed41c83-94bd-4fed-ac4e-3b171b014756 (Accessed 2 April 2019).
7. IMF. ( 2022) World Economic Outlook Database. ( imf.org). Available at: https://www.
imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April/ weo-report? (Accessed
30 April 2022).
8. Jackson, R. H. ( 1987, Autumn) “Quasi Sate, Dual Regimes, and Neoclassical Theory:
International Jurisprudence and the Third World,” International Organization 41, 4:
519-549. Available at: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/
article/quasistates-dual-regimes-and-neoclassical-theory-international-
jurisprudence-and-the-third-world/95DFB31710F6512458B367823C560BC1
(Accessed 8 November 2022).
9. Karami,J.(2006).Hegemony in Internatioan Politics;Conceptual Framwork, Historical
experiece & its Future, Political Science Reaserch Journal,3(3). Available at: http://
ensani.ir/file/download/article/20101122203517-19.pdf. (in Persian)
10. Kappel, R. ( 2015, June) “Global Power Shifts and Challenges for the Global Order,”
in IMVF Policy Paper 2: 77-87. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/
R-Kappel/publication/279287367 (Accessed on 4 April 2019).
11. Khosravi,A ( 202).A Forward loking Analysis of Domestic Protests in the US ,Monthly
Future Studies Magazin, Tehran: ofogh institute (in Persian)
12. Kindelberger, C.P. ( 1986) The World in Depression 1929-1939. Berkeley and Los Angeles,
CA: University of California Press.
13. Krasner, S. D. ( 1985) Structural Conflict. Berkley and Los Angeles, CA: University of
California Press.
14. Mead, Walter Russell. ( 2017, July 21) “What Truman Can Teach Trump,” The Wall Street
Journal. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-truman-can-teachtrump-
1500661673 (Accessed on 4 April 2019).
15. Onuf, N., & and Frank K. ( 1989, June) “Anarchy, Authority, Rule,” International Studies
Quarterly 33, 2: 149-173. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2600535 ( Accessed
2 April 2019).
16. Portland Communications. ( 2019)) The Soft Power 30. Available at: https://portland-
communications.com/pdf/The-Soft-Power_30.pdf/2020 ( Accessed 18 November
2022).
17. Tellis, A. J. ( 2015) “Overview: Assessing National Power in Asia,” Strategic Asia 2015-16:
Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific 1-21. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.
org/files/SA1516_Overview_Telllis.pdf (Accessed 12 June 2022).
18. The Soft Power 30. ( 2020) Global Soft Power Index: A Global Ranking of Soft Power.
Available at: https://softpower30.com/country/united-states2-2020 ( Accessed 18
November 2022).
19. The White House. ( 2015) US National Security Strategy. Available at: https://
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_
strategy_2.pdf (Accessed 18 November 2022).
20. The White House. ( 2017) US National Security Strategy. Available at: https://
trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-
12-18-2017-0905.pdf (Accessed 18 November 2022).
21. World Bank. ( 2022) The World Bank data: Countries and Economies. Available at:
https://data.worldbank.org/country/china?view=chart ( Accessed 2 November
2022).
22. Wallenstein, I. ( 1984) The Politics of the World Eeconomy: The States, the Movements
and the Civilisations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge U

Keywords

International order

hegemonic position

American hegemony

assessment criteria

assessment model

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References

1. Buchholz, K. ( 2020) “Continental Shift: The World’s Biggest Economies Over Time,”
(statista.com). Available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/22256/biggest-economies-
in-the-world-timeline/
2. Fragile States Index. ( 2020) “Measuring Fragility Risk and Vulnerability in 179 Countries,”
Powered by Fund for Peace. ( fragilestatesindex.org). Available at: https://fragilestatesindex.
org/excel/2020. (Accessed 2 November 2022).
3. Gilpin, R. ( 1987) The Political Economy of International Relation. Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press.
4. Global Firepower. ( 2022) World Military Strength Rankings. Available at: https://
www.globalfirepower.com (Accessed 18 November 2022).
5. Haass, Richard N. ( 2013) Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America’s
House in Order. New York: Basic Books.
6. Huygens, A. D. ( 2017) American Decline and Changing Global Hegemony, MA Theses,
Department of Political Science, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa. <DOI:10.31274/
etd-180810-5777>. Available at: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/entities/publication/
2ed41c83-94bd-4fed-ac4e-3b171b014756 (Accessed 2 April 2019).
7. IMF. ( 2022) World Economic Outlook Database. ( imf.org). Available at: https://www.
imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April/ weo-report? (Accessed
30 April 2022).
8. Jackson, R. H. ( 1987, Autumn) “Quasi Sate, Dual Regimes, and Neoclassical Theory:
International Jurisprudence and the Third World,” International Organization 41, 4:
519-549. Available at: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/
article/quasistates-dual-regimes-and-neoclassical-theory-international-
jurisprudence-and-the-third-world/95DFB31710F6512458B367823C560BC1
(Accessed 8 November 2022).
9. Karami,J.(2006).Hegemony in Internatioan Politics;Conceptual Framwork, Historical
experiece & its Future, Political Science Reaserch Journal,3(3). Available at: http://
ensani.ir/file/download/article/20101122203517-19.pdf. (in Persian)
10. Kappel, R. ( 2015, June) “Global Power Shifts and Challenges for the Global Order,”
in IMVF Policy Paper 2: 77-87. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/
R-Kappel/publication/279287367 (Accessed on 4 April 2019).
11. Khosravi,A ( 202).A Forward loking Analysis of Domestic Protests in the US ,Monthly
Future Studies Magazin, Tehran: ofogh institute (in Persian)
12. Kindelberger, C.P. ( 1986) The World in Depression 1929-1939. Berkeley and Los Angeles,
CA: University of California Press.
13. Krasner, S. D. ( 1985) Structural Conflict. Berkley and Los Angeles, CA: University of
California Press.
14. Mead, Walter Russell. ( 2017, July 21) “What Truman Can Teach Trump,” The Wall Street
Journal. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-truman-can-teachtrump-
1500661673 (Accessed on 4 April 2019).
15. Onuf, N., & and Frank K. ( 1989, June) “Anarchy, Authority, Rule,” International Studies
Quarterly 33, 2: 149-173. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2600535 ( Accessed
2 April 2019).
16. Portland Communications. ( 2019)) The Soft Power 30. Available at: https://portland-
communications.com/pdf/The-Soft-Power_30.pdf/2020 ( Accessed 18 November
2022).
17. Tellis, A. J. ( 2015) “Overview: Assessing National Power in Asia,” Strategic Asia 2015-16:
Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific 1-21. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.
org/files/SA1516_Overview_Telllis.pdf (Accessed 12 June 2022).
18. The Soft Power 30. ( 2020) Global Soft Power Index: A Global Ranking of Soft Power.
Available at: https://softpower30.com/country/united-states2-2020 ( Accessed 18
November 2022).
19. The White House. ( 2015) US National Security Strategy. Available at: https://
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_
strategy_2.pdf (Accessed 18 November 2022).
20. The White House. ( 2017) US National Security Strategy. Available at: https://
trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-
12-18-2017-0905.pdf (Accessed 18 November 2022).
21. World Bank. ( 2022) The World Bank data: Countries and Economies. Available at:
https://data.worldbank.org/country/china?view=chart ( Accessed 2 November
2022).
22. Wallenstein, I. ( 1984) The Politics of the World Eeconomy: The States, the Movements
and the Civilisations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge U