Security Threats of Iran by Oil boycotts from Perspective of Copenhagen School by Emphasis on 2rd decade of 2010

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• Khalil Sardarnia ¹
• Mohammad Fallah ²
• Henghameh Alborzi ³

¹ Prof of Political Science at Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

² M.A Graduated in International Relation from Islamic Azad University

³ PH.D Candidate of Political Science at Shiraz University

https://doi.org/10.22067/irlip.2023.75181.1233

Abstract

هدف از انجام این پژوهش ارائه پاسخ تحلیلی از منظر اقتصاد سیاسی و نیز جامعه شناختی سیاسی به این پرسش است: تحریم‌های شدید نفتی و بانکی مرتبط با آن در بستر تنش‌های سیاسی و هسته‌ای بین ایران و ایالات متحده آمریکا و هم پیمانان غربی آن چه تاثیری بر امنیت ملی ایران در دهه 1390 شمسی داشته است؟ فرضیه پژوهش آن است که با توجه به وابستگی شدید بودجه دولت ایران به درآمدهای نفتی، تحریم نفتی و کاهش شدید این درآمدها، امنیت ملی ایران در ابعاد اقتصادی و سیاسی را آسیب‌پذیر ساخته است. این مطالعه با روش تبیینی – تحلیلی و روش کتابخانه‌ای و اینترنتی برای داده‌ها در چارچوب رویکرد جامعه بنیاد مکتب کپنهاگ به امنیت ملی انجام شده است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که تحریم‌های نفتی در یک دهه اخیر به ویژه در دوره ریاست جمهوری ترامپ این پیامدهای منفی را بر اقتصاد ایران داشته است: ناعتمادی و کاهش شدید سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و داخلی، کاهش تولید در بخش‌های صنعتی و کشاورزی، عدم انتقال دانش فنی در نفت، بیکاری فزاینده، تورم شدید و بی سابقه ناشی از تحریم و نقدینگی بالای ناشی از استقراض‌های بی‌رویه دولت از بانک مرکزی و چاپ اسکناس، گسترش فساد اقتصادی در اشکال قاچاق، احتکار، اختلاس، رانت جویی، افزایش ضریب جینی یا نابرابری و شکاف طبقاتی شدید، آسیب پذیری شدید سرمایه‌گذاری صاحبان سرمایه‌های کوچک و میانی در بورس و جاهای دیگر. چنین پیامدهای منفی ناشی از تحریم‌ها به ویژه در نیمه دوم دهه 1390 سبب رخ دادن اعتراضات ساختارشکن، رادیکال و زنجیروار با پیوندهای افقی بین اعتراضات اصناف و گروه‌های گوناگون اجتماعی در شکل خیابانی (سیاست خیابان) شدند

Keywords

• Iran
• National Security
• Socio-politacal Instability
• Oil Boycotts
• Socio-Political Protests

References

Aziznejad, S. & Seyed. N., M. R. (2009). Study of the Effects of Sanctions on Iran's
Economy with Emphasis on Foreign Frade. Quarterly Journal of Parliament and Research,
16(61). [in Persian].
Bassiri, M. A. (2001). Changes in the National Security Concept. Tehran: Political
Information – Financial. 4(1 & 2). [in Persian].

BBC News (December 31, 2017). Rouhani: Sanctions Reduced Iran's Revenue by about $
200 billion, available at: https://www.bbc.com/persian/iran-50956500. [in Persian].
Behroozifar, M. (2004). The Effect of US Unilateral Sanctions on the US Commercial
Economy and Global Energy Markets. Quarterly Journal of Business Research, 33. [in
Persian].
Book of the year of Iran's petrochemical industry (2020). Production of Petrochemical
products. available at: https://nipc.ir/uploads/133792_tolid.pdf. [in Persian].
Bozan, B. (1999). People, Governments and Fear. Translator: Publisher, Tehran: Strategic
Research Center. [in Persian].
BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2021). at:https://www.bp.com/content/
dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/
pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.
Brian, H. H. (2019). Press Briefing with Brian Hook, U.S. Special Representative for Iran,
and Victoria Coates, Senior Director for Middle Eastern Affairs. NSC, available at:
https://www.state.gov/press-briefing-with-brian-hook-u-s-special-representative-for-iran-
and-senior-policy-advisor-to-the-secretary-of-state-and-victoria-coates-deputy-assistant-
to-the-president-senior-director-for-midd/.
Buzan, B. (2000). Introduction to the Copenhagen School in Security Studies, Scientific
Dialogue. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies, 3(3). [in Persian].
Buzan, B., Wæver, O. & Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A New Framework for Analysis,
(Boulder, Cola; London: Lynne Reinner).
Camp, J. (2004). Strategic Geography of the Middle East. translated by Seyed Mehdi
Hassani Matin, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies Publications. [in Persian].
DW Persian (25/01/2020). Iran's Non-Oil Revenues in the Circle of Sanctions. available at:
https://www.dw.com/fa-ir / a-52141750. [in Persian].
Ebrahimi, N. (2014). A Comparative Study of the Concept of Security in the Late Security
Schools. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies, 17(4), 7-30. [in Persian].
Etemad Newspaper (February 19, 2019). The Doubling of Oil Exports after Barjam. No.
4310, available at: https://www.magiran.com/article/3870807. [in Persian].
Etemad newspaper (November 14, 2019). 14% Decrease in Iranian Exports in the Last 20
Years, No. 4510, available at: https://www.magiran.com/article/3976924. [in Persian].
Faraji Dizaji, s. (2014). The Effects of Oil Shocks on Government Expenditures and
Government Revenues Nexus (with an Application to Iran's Sanctions). Economic
Modelling,40, 299-313.
Fashndi, N., Ghaderi, H. (2017). Study of the Legal Basis of Smart Sanctions Against Iran
and the Effects of Borjam on these Sanctions. Qanun Yar Scientific Quarterly, 2, 136-172.
[in Persian].
Foran, J. (1997). Theorizing Revolution. Routledge.
Friis, K. (2000). From Liminarsto others: Securitizations through Myths. A Journal
ofNetwork of Peace and Confikhct Studies, (2000).
Gharehgozli, O. (2017). An Estimation of the Economic Cost of Recent Sanctions on Iran
Using the Synthetic Control Method. Economics Letters, Elsevier, 157(C), 141-144.
Golafrooz, M. (2015). The Geopolitical Role of Energy on the National Security of the
Islamic Republic of Iran. World Politics Quarterly, 4(3), 199-224. [in Persian].
https://nipc.ir/uploads/foroosh.pdf. [in Persian].
International Monetary fund (IMF). Country Data of Iran. (October, 2019). available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRN,Access to: February 11 2020.
Iran Petrochemical Industry Yearbook (2020). Production of Petrochemical Products.
Keyvan, H., S. A. & Eshrati, Kh., F. (2014). A Constructivist Approach to the Evolution
and Intensification of US Sanctions Policy against Iran (1980-19-2012). Quarterly Journal
of Strategic Policy Research, 2(8), 32-59. [in Persian].
Moein, M. (1974). Moein Dictionary. Vol. 1, Tehran, Amirkabir Publications. [in Persian].
Mohseni, S. & Salehi, A. (2011). US Objectives of Securing Iran's Nuclear Activities
(Looking at the Copenhagen School). Foreign Policy Quarterly, 25(3), 614-634. [in
Persian].
Mokhtari, H., H. (2015). The Impact of International Sanctions on National Power Factors;
Emphasizing Security Council sanctions against Iran. Geopolitical Quarterly, 38. [in
Persian].
Mosallanejad, A. (2016). Nuclear Diplomacy and the Strategy of Reconciliation in Iran's
Foreign Policy. World Policy Quarterly, 5(3), 97-130. [in Persian].
Mottaghi, E. (2000). The Impact of US Economic Sanctions on the National Security of the
Islamic Republic of Iran. Political Science Quarterly, 9. [in Persian].
Nasiri, H. (2005). Sustainable National Security. Political-Economic Information Monthly,
216-215, 83-89. [in Persian].
Nawazani, B. (2005). Application of US Sanctions in Dealing with the Islamic Republic of
Iran. Foreign Policy Quarterly, 19(2). [in Persian].
Negin Taji, Z.; Hosseini, H., & Kiani, A. (2011). Economic Indicators and National
Security of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Political and International Research, 9, 193-202. [in
Persian].
Nye, J. S. (2008a). Power in the Information Age. translated by Saeed Mirtorabi. Tehran:
Research Institute for Strategic Studies. [in Persian].
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (January 15 2020). available at:
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm.
Paytakht Oskooi, S.A. & Taghlabi Akbari, L. (2016). Study of the Impact of Sanctions on
the Employment Status of Women in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Women and Family
Studies, 8(31), 7-21. [in Persian].
Poorahmadi, H. & Bazobandi, A. A (2017). Analysis of the Borjam Nuclear Agreement
Based on the Metaphor of a Two-Level Game. World Politics Quarterly, 7(3), 79-119. [in
Persian].
Rabiee, H. & Takrosta, M. (2021). A Study of the Effects of US Economic Sanctions on the
Economy of Rural Areas in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Space Economics and Rural
Development, 10(3), 199-214. [in Persian].
Richter, F. (2020). Iran economics woes. available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/
20454/real-gdp-growth-of-iran/.
Sadeghi, S. S.; Akhavanekazemi, M., & Zarafshan, V. (2016). Effects of Oil-Based
Political Economy on Iran's National Security. Quarterly Journal of Political and
International Research, 27, 103-135. [in Persian].
Salimi, T. H. (2017). Cross-Border Gas Pipelines and Rnergy Decurity of the Islamic
Republic of Iran. International Political Research Quarterly, 32, 72-90. [in Persian].
Sardarnia, Kh. (2016). The Impact of Soft War on Vulnerability and Threat to Iran's
Economic Security. Journal of the Islamic Revolution, 6(20), 57-75. [in Persian].
Sardarnia, Kh., & Abedi. M. (2016). Analyzing the Wide Pankurdism from the Copenhagen School and Constructivism Perspective. Journal of Politics and Law, 9(9).
Shahbaz, H., & Naderi. A., S. (2020). Prioritizing the effects of oil sanctions on the national
security of the Islamic Republic of Iran by hierarchical analysis. Foreign Policy Quarterly,
34(1). [in Persian].
Shariatmadar. J., S. N. (2006). Security in Islam. Quarterly Journal of Political Science,
1(34), 7-50. [in Persian].
Statistics Center of Iran (2021). Key Indicators of the Whole Country. Economic Growth
Rate. available at: https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/0/News/1400/rosd6mahe
1001.pdf. [in Persian].
Toghyani, M., & Derakhshan, M. (2014). Analysis of the factors affecting Iran's economic
sanctions and strategies to deal with it. Strategy Quarterly, 23(73), 115-145[in Persian].
U.S department of State. (April 8 2019). Designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps. at: https://www.state.gov/designation-of-the-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps/.
UNCTAD, World Investment Report (2019). available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/
official-document/wir2021_en.pdf.
Vaezi, H. (2000). Iran and the United States: A Study of American Policies in Iran, Tehran:
Soroush Publications. [in Persian].
Valdani Zarghani, E. (2015). A Study of the Impact of Oil and Gas Industry Sanctions on
Macroeconomic Variables of the Country by Insisting on Countering the Impact of Oil
Export Income, Resistance Economics Research, 5. [in Persian].
Yalfani, A.; Kazemi, F., & Mossadegh, F. (2016). Study of the effects and consequences of
sanctions on foreign investment in Iran and the relationship between the resistance
economy and reducing the negative effects of sanctions, Shabak Monthly, 2(2), 1-10. [in
Persian].
Yavari, K., & Mohseni, R. (2009). The Effects of Trade and Financial Sanctions on the
Iranian Economy: A Historical Analysis, Quarterly Journal of Parliament and Research,
16(61). [in Persian].