alireza Samiee Esfahani; Sara Farahmand
Abstract
Abstract Over the past decade, the European Union has faced unprecedented challenges on various fronts, such as the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the foreign policy crisis (Crimea), the disintegration, and the populism crisis. Meanwhile, the Corona Pandemic Crisis, although seemingly a health ...
Read More
Abstract Over the past decade, the European Union has faced unprecedented challenges on various fronts, such as the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the foreign policy crisis (Crimea), the disintegration, and the populism crisis. Meanwhile, the Corona Pandemic Crisis, although seemingly a health crisis at first glance, cannot be ignored for its geopolitical effects. The present study seeks to answer the main question based on the Neo-Neo debate and the future research method (scenario-making technique), what scenarios are ahead of the European Union in the face of the problems posed by the Corona crisis worldwide? Will this crisis lead to more or less European integration or will it lead in a different direction? In answer to this question, based on the course of events, the goals of the actors and the use of the technique of "Brainstorming", five scenarios can be proposed in the form of three categories: a) the Preferable scenario or the best; Continuing the EU's convergence and maintaining the power of acting at the level of international relations or the EU's continued convergence with the German leadership; B) Probable scenario; Transformation of the European Union into a regional confederation or the withdrawal of Italy from the European Union; C) Possible scenario; The divergence and collapse of the European Union. The findings show that the aftermath of the Quaid 19 crisis has left the EU with countless problems, with the EU failing to manage the crisis, thus undermining the EU's acting power. Internal and international levels are strongly affected.
alireza samiee esfahani; soghra farahmand
Abstract
Abstract
Following the ISIL invasion of northern Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga unofficially took control of some parts of the northern Iraq abandoned by Iraqi forces and, as a result, consequently attempted to strengthen the independence of Kurdistan. This event has important internal and regional implications ...
Read More
Abstract
Following the ISIL invasion of northern Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga unofficially took control of some parts of the northern Iraq abandoned by Iraqi forces and, as a result, consequently attempted to strengthen the independence of Kurdistan. This event has important internal and regional implications on the Iraqi Kurdistan region. Utilizing the Future Studies scenario technique, the current research aims to answer the following question: Given the Kurdish Peshmarga’s aim for the independent Kurdistan, how their political future can be best predicted? This investigation provides five scenarios in three categories: a) Prefarable scenario: Kurdistan climate negotiations with the central government of Iraq, Iran, Turkey, the United States and its western allies, and the declaration of independence of Kurdistan; the independence of the Kurdistan region and the utilizing Erbil's economic capabilities to influence future actions and reactions (B) Probable scenario: mediating a third actor, and enjoying economic and political privileges via taking part in the disputed areas administration; creating a confederal system in return for postponing or abandoning the independence of Kurdistan; Immediate announcement of the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan after the possible failure of talks with the central government of Iraq and the rest of regional and international states (C) Possible scenario: creation of a great Kurdistan. The findings of the present study indicate that the consequences of the referendum of September 25, 2017, have affected the Kurdistan region. Therefore, if the Kurdish government can not overcome this crisis, many of the current achievements in the economic sphere will lose political, social and cultural freedom.
