Khalil Sardarnia; Mohammad Fallah; Henghameh Alborzi
Abstract
هدف از انجام این پژوهش ارائه پاسخ تحلیلی از منظر اقتصاد سیاسی و نیز جامعه شناختی سیاسی به این پرسش است: تحریم‌های شدید نفتی و بانکی مرتبط با آن در بستر تنش‌های سیاسی و ...
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هدف از انجام این پژوهش ارائه پاسخ تحلیلی از منظر اقتصاد سیاسی و نیز جامعه شناختی سیاسی به این پرسش است: تحریم‌های شدید نفتی و بانکی مرتبط با آن در بستر تنش‌های سیاسی و هسته‌ای بین ایران و ایالات متحده آمریکا و هم پیمانان غربی آن چه تاثیری بر امنیت ملی ایران در دهه 1390 شمسی داشته است؟ فرضیه پژوهش آن است که با توجه به وابستگی شدید بودجه دولت ایران به درآمدهای نفتی، تحریم نفتی و کاهش شدید این درآمدها، امنیت ملی ایران در ابعاد اقتصادی و سیاسی را آسیب‌پذیر ساخته است. این مطالعه با روش تبیینی – تحلیلی و روش کتابخانه‌ای و اینترنتی برای داده‌ها در چارچوب رویکرد جامعه بنیاد مکتب کپنهاگ به امنیت ملی انجام شده است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که تحریم‌های نفتی در یک دهه اخیر به ویژه در دوره ریاست جمهوری ترامپ این پیامدهای منفی را بر اقتصاد ایران داشته است: ناعتمادی و کاهش شدید سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و داخلی، کاهش تولید در بخش‌های صنعتی و کشاورزی، عدم انتقال دانش فنی در نفت، بیکاری فزاینده، تورم شدید و بی سابقه ناشی از تحریم و نقدینگی بالای ناشی از استقراض‌های بی‌رویه دولت از بانک مرکزی و چاپ اسکناس، گسترش فساد اقتصادی در اشکال قاچاق، احتکار، اختلاس، رانت جویی، افزایش ضریب جینی یا نابرابری و شکاف طبقاتی شدید، آسیب پذیری شدید سرمایه‌گذاری صاحبان سرمایه‌های کوچک و میانی در بورس و جاهای دیگر. چنین پیامدهای منفی ناشی از تحریم‌ها به ویژه در نیمه دوم دهه 1390 سبب رخ دادن اعتراضات ساختارشکن، رادیکال و زنجیروار با پیوندهای افقی بین اعتراضات اصناف و گروه‌های گوناگون اجتماعی در شکل خیابانی (سیاست خیابان) شدند
Ali Esmaeili; Mohammadali Shahryari; Mohammad Parsa
Abstract
Middle East; Complex regions, with an intertwined structure and the structure of the international system, which includes the security of the region as well as the foundation of international relations of states in the future. The aim, therefore, is to answer the question of what effect the polarization ...
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Middle East; Complex regions, with an intertwined structure and the structure of the international system, which includes the security of the region as well as the foundation of international relations of states in the future. The aim, therefore, is to answer the question of what effect the polarization developments in the international system between 1980 and 2021 have had on the conflicts and security of the Middle East? It can be said that the Middle East region is facing a pervasive and comprehensive insecurity due to the internal situation and the structure of the international system, so such regions can not, in terms of security, the impact of the international system on their orientations, policies and strategies. To prevent. In the current era of the international system, this influence on the Middle East sub-system has been very special. The findings of this study are based on the fact that with the disappearance of the bipolar system in 1991 and the emergence of the US-led unipolar system, the Middle East has experienced systemic turmoil, and the monopoly system (US) in 1991-2021 more than the bipolar system (America and the Soviet Union) In the years 1980-1991, he was influential in creating conflict and war in the Middle East. The expansion of the depth and scope of political, social, economic, and cultural instability in the Middle East is one of the consequences of such a situation. The research method is descriptive-analytical and using library resources.
Majid Abbasi; Vahid Mohammadi
Abstract
When the Tunisian Revolution triggered the domino of the collapse Arab leaders, it was not anticipated to reach to Syria creating a deep conflict with local, regional and trans-regional dimensions. However, when the protests speared to Syria, various players try to exploit it to their own advantage, ...
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When the Tunisian Revolution triggered the domino of the collapse Arab leaders, it was not anticipated to reach to Syria creating a deep conflict with local, regional and trans-regional dimensions. However, when the protests speared to Syria, various players try to exploit it to their own advantage, and an all-out conflict began. Due to Syria's geopolitical location, regional powers such as Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and trans-regional powers like the US and Russia became involved in the crisis, competing with each other. Considering the nature of the relationship and interdependency between the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran and that of Syria, the question arises as to what are the interests of regional and trans-regional powers in Syria and what will be the impact of their rivalry on Iran’s security? As an answer to the first question, it is argued that behavioural patterns formed by the anarchic structure of the international system has been the cause of the Syrian conflict, as attempts at pursuit of survival and power have led to the conflict of interests and a change in the balance of power. In order to evaluate the consequences of the fall of Assad, Barry Buzan’s concept of existential thereats has been used, as it is argued that such an event would have negative impacts on Iran’s strategic depth, and counts as an existential thereat to it. Using Patrick M. Morgan’s levels of analysis, Kenneth Waltz’s logic of limited number of powers, and the realist theory’s statism, the behaviors of four powerful players in the conflict (the US and Saudi Arabia as the opponents of the status quo and Russia and Iran as its advocates) are analysed.
