alireza Samiee Esfahani; Sara Farahmand
Abstract
Abstract Over the past decade, the European Union has faced unprecedented challenges on various fronts, such as the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the foreign policy crisis (Crimea), the disintegration, and the populism crisis. Meanwhile, the Corona Pandemic Crisis, although seemingly a health ...
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Abstract Over the past decade, the European Union has faced unprecedented challenges on various fronts, such as the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the foreign policy crisis (Crimea), the disintegration, and the populism crisis. Meanwhile, the Corona Pandemic Crisis, although seemingly a health crisis at first glance, cannot be ignored for its geopolitical effects. The present study seeks to answer the main question based on the Neo-Neo debate and the future research method (scenario-making technique), what scenarios are ahead of the European Union in the face of the problems posed by the Corona crisis worldwide? Will this crisis lead to more or less European integration or will it lead in a different direction? In answer to this question, based on the course of events, the goals of the actors and the use of the technique of "Brainstorming", five scenarios can be proposed in the form of three categories: a) the Preferable scenario or the best; Continuing the EU's convergence and maintaining the power of acting at the level of international relations or the EU's continued convergence with the German leadership; B) Probable scenario; Transformation of the European Union into a regional confederation or the withdrawal of Italy from the European Union; C) Possible scenario; The divergence and collapse of the European Union. The findings show that the aftermath of the Quaid 19 crisis has left the EU with countless problems, with the EU failing to manage the crisis, thus undermining the EU's acting power. Internal and international levels are strongly affected.
alireza samiee esfahani; soghra farahmand
Abstract
Abstract
Following the ISIL invasion of northern Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga unofficially took control of some parts of the northern Iraq abandoned by Iraqi forces and, as a result, consequently attempted to strengthen the independence of Kurdistan. This event has important internal and regional implications ...
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Abstract
Following the ISIL invasion of northern Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga unofficially took control of some parts of the northern Iraq abandoned by Iraqi forces and, as a result, consequently attempted to strengthen the independence of Kurdistan. This event has important internal and regional implications on the Iraqi Kurdistan region. Utilizing the Future Studies scenario technique, the current research aims to answer the following question: Given the Kurdish Peshmarga’s aim for the independent Kurdistan, how their political future can be best predicted? This investigation provides five scenarios in three categories: a) Prefarable scenario: Kurdistan climate negotiations with the central government of Iraq, Iran, Turkey, the United States and its western allies, and the declaration of independence of Kurdistan; the independence of the Kurdistan region and the utilizing Erbil's economic capabilities to influence future actions and reactions (B) Probable scenario: mediating a third actor, and enjoying economic and political privileges via taking part in the disputed areas administration; creating a confederal system in return for postponing or abandoning the independence of Kurdistan; Immediate announcement of the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan after the possible failure of talks with the central government of Iraq and the rest of regional and international states (C) Possible scenario: creation of a great Kurdistan. The findings of the present study indicate that the consequences of the referendum of September 25, 2017, have affected the Kurdistan region. Therefore, if the Kurdish government can not overcome this crisis, many of the current achievements in the economic sphere will lose political, social and cultural freedom.
alireza samiee esfahani; Iman sharif
Abstract
Abstract
In the late 2010, Tunisian revolutionaries toppled the authoritarian regime of Ben Ali. Tunisian rebels inspired a few other nations to rise against dictators. Among all countries involved in the Arab revolutions, only Tunisia seems to be completing democratic transition. The main question ...
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Abstract
In the late 2010, Tunisian revolutionaries toppled the authoritarian regime of Ben Ali. Tunisian rebels inspired a few other nations to rise against dictators. Among all countries involved in the Arab revolutions, only Tunisia seems to be completing democratic transition. The main question of this article is how political transition in Tunisia affects the formation and stability of good governance in this country. To answer this question, theoretical foundations of good governance are combined with analytical model of democratic transitions. The results showed that a dynamic and stable middle class civil society, a small professional army, ethnic and religious homogeneity, and secular and Islamist leaders’ commitment to democratic transition process will pave the way for the formation of good governance in long-term.
Jaafar Noruzi Nejad
Abstract
Iraq is a country with many social cleavages, due to its ethnic and religious diversity, and because pf the inability of its political elite, this feature has always hindered resolving its problems. With the removal of the authoritarian regime of Sadam Hossein, ethnic and religious disputes escalated ...
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Iraq is a country with many social cleavages, due to its ethnic and religious diversity, and because pf the inability of its political elite, this feature has always hindered resolving its problems. With the removal of the authoritarian regime of Sadam Hossein, ethnic and religious disputes escalated to their peak. The main question in this article is why has ethnic and sectarian violence exacerbated in Iraq after Saddam Hossein? In response to the question posed, it is argued that the process of international nation-state building or nation- state building from outside that was implemented with a security oriented approach by the US, because of its incompliance with cultural and social features of Iraq, has led to the intensification of sectarian and ethnic violence in the country. The method used in this research is qualitative and causal, using Rogers Brubaker’ theory. Findings of the reseach indicate that identical institutional structures do not work for all societies effectively, and every society’s exclusive capacities and delicacies must be taken into consideration in the process of nation-state building.
